Levers Hollywood was an application conceptualized and built in 32 hours during Hollywood Hack Day 2013. Building on the Levers simulations modeling concept, Levers Hollywood determined the influence of variables that contribute to a film's production and predicted opening weekend box office revenues. Levers Hollywood ingested the individual components of a movie, their historical performance and allowed us to model and extrapolate their opening day revenues at the box office. There were 35 teams participating; we placed second. Below are some screenshots of was the working concept and some technical details.
Predictions
- Projection: $20,370,082
- Actual: $22,451,514
- Difference: 9.27%
- Projection: $72,584,365
- Actual: $75,204,289
- Difference: 3.84%
- Projection: $79,523,341
- Actual: $84,617,303
- Difference: 6.02%
- Projection: $75,766,908
- Actual: $83,517,315
- Difference: 9.28%
Explanation of Data
How does the Levers Hollywood Engine work?
Levers Hollywood uses a proprietary algorithm taking into consideration the most significant factors that contribute to a film's opening weekend success. We incorporate elements of graph theory, linear regression and advanced statistical forecasting to derive meaning from the meta data of 2.6 million films and 3.4 million cast and crew members. Levers Hollywood calculates the contribution of multiple variables including cast, producer, director, writer, MPAA rating and social media buzz. Levers Hollywood also applies seasonal trend analysis to film release dates to account for holidays and the summer blockbuster season. What happens after the movie opens?
Each Monday the opening weekend projections are replaced with the actual revenue numbers and the accuracy of our predictions so that we can continually adjust our algorithm for upcoming films. Predictions are continually updated until opening day, then they remain unchanged.